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Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is warning that a pattern that has preceded the previous three Bitcoin (BTC) halvings has re-emerged.

Cowen tells his 789,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin has always fallen to the bull market support band during the first quarter of the halving year.

The bull market support band, an indicator made up of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, is used to identify possible support levels for the price of Bitcoin during the bull market.

Source: Benjamin Cowen/ YouTube

According to Cowen, Bitcoin could depreciate by double-digit percentage points from the current level if it tags the bull market support band.

“In February of the halving year, Bitcoin has always tagged the bull market support band… from the current levels that would represent a substantial drop about a 15% drop.”

Cowen says that whether the bull market support band acts as a support level for Bitcoin or BTC falls below it will depend on the state of the US economy.

“In the case of 2012 [Bitcoin halving], and in the case of 2016 [Bitcoin halving], we held it [bull market support band] as support. But in the case of 2020, we did not hold it as support. We had the pandemic drop, we ended up having a recession where the unemployment rate went up a lot…

If the economy holds up, then we might bounce off at that level [bull market support band].

If the economy does not hold up and the Federal Reserve has pushed us into a recession, then it might not hold up.”

Bitcoin is trading at $42,390 at time of writing.


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