Since breaking above $36,000 last week, Bitcoin’s exchange rate with the U.S. dollar and USD stablecoins has held steady above the $36,500 level.
The bull market has taken BTC’s market cap up to 55% of the global silver market cap. Meanwhile, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has surpassed the value of all the world’s silver.
The last time that happened was during the bull run to all-time high crypto prices in 2021. But there are still some bears in this market. They’re cautioning that the rally may have already overpriced the result of a spot Bitcoin ETF getting the go-ahead from the U.S. SEC.
Bitcoin ETF Bears: JP Morgan, Euro Pacific Capital
JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report on Wednesday that the “crypto rally looks overdone.” The analysts noted that spot ETFs for Bitcoin already exist in Canada and Europe, but have gained “little interest from investors since their inception.”
Furthermore, the JPMorgan team said:
“First, instead of fresh capital entering the crypto industry to be invested in the newly-approved ETFs, we see as a more likely scenario existing capital shifting from existing bitcoin products such as the Grayscale bitcoin trust, bitcoin futures ETFs and publicly listed bitcoin mining companies, into the newly-approved spot bitcoin ETFs.”
In addition to the New York bank, Euro Pacific Capital’s chief strategist, Peter Schiff, said Friday in a post to X.com:
“Based on the results my guess is that Bitcoin crashes before the ETF launch. That why the people who bought the rumor won’t actually profit if they wait for the fact to sell.”
That’s in line with the outlook on BTC Schiff had at the end of October.
BTC Bulls – Bernstein, Galaxy Digital, CryptoRover
Still, Bitcoin bulls abound in this market.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a research note at the beginning of November:
“You may not like Bitcoin as much as we do, but a dispassionate view of Bitcoin as a commodity suggests a turn of the cycle. A good idea is only as good as its timing – SEC approved ETFs by world’s top asset managers (BlackRock, Fidelity et al), seems imminent.”
The Bernstein financial advisor is very bullish. The recent note forecasts a Bitcoin price of $150,000 sometime within the next two years.
Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital expects Bitcoin price to rise 70% following a spot ETF approval. That would push Bitcoin to a valuation above $54,000 for 1 BTC.
CryptoRover is another Bitcoin ETF bull this November. The analyst with 100K YouTube subs and 586K X.com followers argues this is not a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news scenario.
Instead, he says, it’s the beginning of a long-term sea change with institutional investors in Bitcoin markets. He expects the rally to “lead to a $100,000 $BTC in no time.”