Markus Thielen, research head at Matrixport and founder of DeFi Research, expects Bitcoin’s bullish momentum to persist and drive prices toward $40,000 by the end of the year.
Thielen’s optimistic outlook is based on several factors, including options market positioning and expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), he said in a recent note.
“Bitcoin will reach $40,000 – if not even $45,000 – by the year’s end,” Thielen said.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a remarkable upward trajectory this year, more than doubling in value.
In the past four weeks alone, the leading cryptocurrency has surged by nearly 40%.
The recent rally has stimulated demand for call options, which are derivatives that provide the buyer with the right to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price in the future.
Thielen noted that the increased demand for these bullish bets has left market makers, who traditionally take the opposite side of clients’ trades, exposed to further upside potential in the cryptocurrency market.
As prices continue to rise, these entities are likely to buy Bitcoin and hedge their positions, adding to the overall bullish pressure in the market.
Options, Inflation, and Spot ETFs to Benefit Bitcoin Surge
The options market also plays a significant role in Thielen’s prediction.
He pointed out that there are two substantial options expiries scheduled for November 24 and December 29, with outstanding open interest of $3.7 billion and $5.4 billion, respectively.
The number of outstanding call options exceeds puts by 85%, with the $40,000 strike price having the most significant open interest.
As the market approaches the $40,000 level, more participants will need to purchase Bitcoin to hedge their positions, further driving up the price.
“There will be a broad interest in pushing prices to this $40,000 level. The odds are high that we reach this level.”
Another supporting factor for the bullish case is the receding U.S. inflation rate and the possibility of rate cuts or liquidity easing by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed has raised interest rates by 525 basis points over 14 months to May 2023 to combat rising inflation.
However, inflation has recently slowed, with the U.S. CPI climbing 3.2% in the 12 months through October, leading to speculation that the Fed may consider rate cuts to stimulate the economy and incentivize investment in riskier assets.
Thielen believes that the current inflation rate and interest rates indicate the potential for rate cuts in the future.
He suggested that a spread of 2.0% between the inflation rate (CPI) and interest rates could lead to a 200 basis point rate cut next year, which would be bullish for Bitcoin.
Lastly, optimism surrounding the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could also contribute to price gains.
Bloomberg analysts have given a 90% chance of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving one or more spot ETFs before January 10.