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Macro strategist Jim Bianco says the approval of a spot-market Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) may end up being a sell-the-news event.

In a new interview on Real Vision, Bianco looks back on the initial public offering (IPO) of Facebook, one of the most highly anticipated IPOs in recent history.

The investor notes that shares of Facebook initially went public trading at $28, and despite being hyped by market participants, dropped all the way down to $11. Bianco says that such a scenario isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Bitcoin when a spot ETF is approved.

“So I worry that if this is going to act like a TradFi market at all – in other words, be efficient like a TradFi market – that what’ll happen when the real approval comes, not just yet another bogus story, is you’ll have a couple of days rally and that’s it, and then the price will kind of meander sideways to lower for some period of time. 

I tend to look at – if you want a quick example of that – I remember 2012 when Facebook came public, it was going to be the biggest IPO in human history, and it was coming public at $28… 

[The question was] ‘What day does it hit $100?’ Not if it’s going to get to $100, but ‘what day is it going to get to $100?’

It did, about three or four years later it went to $100. But first, it went to $11. First, you lost two-thirds of your money and then everything played out the way you thought it was going to. And that’s what I fear with the spot Bitcoin ETF, that some similar pattern might play out first before you get all of the upside that everybody thinks is going to come.”

At time of writing, BTC is priced at $37,002.

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